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BMO economist slams Carney government for opaque finances https://truenorthwire.com/2025/07/bmo-economist-slams-carney-government-for-opaque-finances/

“At the city level, the largest unemployment rate increase was in Calgary, coming off tighter levels a year ago,” explains Douglas Porter, Chief economist at BMO. Adding, “Otherwise, softness continues in southern Ontario as Windsor (9.1%) and Toronto (8.4%) have the highest jobless rates in the country.” https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-top-job-market-is-saskatoon-toronto-ranks-near-worst-bmo/

Canada’s biggest city is its top destination for economic migrants, but it’s one of the worst places to actually find a job. BMO Capital Markets released its annual rank of the country’s 33 largest cities by labor market, comparing how jobs have kept up with population growth. Despite Toronto being Canada’s financial capital, it now has the second-highest unemployment rate and plunged in rank near the bottom of the list—in 27th place, falling behind cities like Sudbury. On the flip side of the list were affordable cities like Saskatoon, and Victoria. https://betterdwelling.com/this-weeks-top-stories-canadian-mortgage-rates-to-rise-toronto-job-market-amongst-worst-in-canada/

It wasn’t far off from the Bank of Canada (BoC) target of 1.5%, though economists at BMO emphasize that’s post downward revisions from the BoC. The central bank had forecast 2.8% growth until October, nearly cutting their forecast in half a month after Q3 officially ended but had yet to be reported. Despite aggregate growth, Stat Can emphasized a lack of per-capita progress. They warn per-capita, real GDP fell 0.4% in Q3, marking the 6th consecutive negative quarter. https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-gdp-rises-on-gov-spending-big-revisions-to-slow-rate-cuts-bmo/

Interprovincial migration was largely driven by affordability issues, especially when it comes to a crucial demographic—young adults. They largely fled from regions like BC and Ontario, two provinces the bank expects shelter costs to moderate over the next few years. “Suffice it to say that rental markets in Ontario and B.C., which have a pipeline of supply coming to market, will also likely see their demand curves impacted most. Watch for that to play out in lower rent (immediately) and cooling housing starts (eventually),” Many cities in those regions have seen shelter costs rise at a much faster pace than traditional major real estate markets. As a result, the spread between the expensive cities young adults fled to is narrowing, providing less incentive than it once did. Buyer psychology can shift dramatically, and slow interprovincial migration if the regions they’re fleeing pick up. https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-immigration-changes-to-impact-bc-ontario-real-estate-most-bmo/

Canada is pulling back on immigration after a disasterous attempt to use it as stimulus. Building on top of this year’s reduction to temporary residents such as foreign students, the country will see state-mandated de-growth. For the next two years, the population will shrink in a attempt to stabilize housing after policymakers’ promises to triple homebuilding fail to materialize. Canada delivered its biggest affordability measure in years—shrinking its population. That was the takeaway from a new report from BMO Capital Markets this week. The bank has repeatedly warned that promises to triple the new homes built and create affordability with supply, weren’t grounded in reality. Now that Canada is quietly acknowledging this failure, they see real affordability on the way as scaled up building meets a shrinking population. https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-prices-to-correct-after-immigration-cuts-bmo/

A new research note from BMO Capital Markets warns that young adults are facing the “gruesome twosome”—soaring unemployment and unaffordable housing. The combination has created an environment on par with the country’s worst recessions. Canadian unemployment is rising at an unusually rapid pace—but almost exclusively for young adults. The youth (15-24 years old) unemployment rate has climbed to 14.5% in August. Outside of the recent pandemic, this is the highest level in over a decade. https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-young-adults-face-soaring-unemployment-unaffordable-housing-bmo/

A bad job market is a bad job market, right? That’s the problem—it’s not that bad. The bank highlights that recent immigrants face an unemployment rate 7 points higher than the general population. He charted the unemployment rate gap between immigrants over time and those born in Canada. What he found is that the current scenario is far from normal. https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-immigration-policy-isnt-helping-anyone-bmo/

Canadian real estate didn’t get a boost from a recent rate cut. That’s good news, according to BMO’s latest research note. The bank broke down CREA’s June update on existing home sales, and believes this is what the Bank of Canada (BoC) would like to see. Cheaper credit didn’t suddenly spark exuberant demand, potentially clearing the way for more rate cuts. However, BMO warns the data is driven by just one major factor—people fleeing the country’s largest markets, Toronto and Vancouver. https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-weakens-as-people-flee-toronto-vancouver-bmo/